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Analog-Based Ensemble Model Output Statistics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n analog-based ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is proposed to improve EMOS for the calibration of ensemble forecasts. Given a set of analog predictors and corresponding weights, which are optimized with a brute-force ...
A Hybrid NWP–Analog Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n analog ensemble (AnEn) is constructed by first matching up the current forecast from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with similar past forecasts. The verifying observation from each match is then used as an ...
Improving the Analog Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasts for Rare Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractAn analog-based ensemble technique, the analog ensemble (AnEn), has been applied successfully to generate probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables, wind and solar power, energy demand, and the optimal ...
Statistical Downscaling of a High-Resolution Precipitation Reanalysis Using the Analog Ensemble Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis study explores the first application of an analog-based method to downscale precipitation estimates from a regional reanalysis. The utilized analog ensemble (AnEn) approach defines a metric with which a set ...
Comparison and Combination of Regional and Global Ensemble Prediction Systems for Probabilistic Predictions of Hub-Height Wind Speed
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic 100-m wind speed forecasts, which are relevant for wind energy applications, from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) at six measurement ...
Deterministic Wind Speed Predictions with Analog-Based Methods over Complex Topography
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThe performance of analog-based and Kalman filter (KF) postprocessing methods is tested in climatologically and topographically different regions for point-based wind speed predictions at 10 m above the ground. The ...
Deep Learning Forecast Uncertainty for Precipitation over the Western United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Improving Precipitation Forecasts with Convolutional Neural Networks
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Reaping Rewards from River and Rain: Applications of California’s Russian River Hydrometeorological Observing Network (RHONET)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Kalman Filter and Analog Schemes to Postprocess Numerical Weather Predictions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: wo new postprocessing methods are proposed to reduce numerical weather prediction?s systematic and random errors. The first method consists of running a postprocessing algorithm inspired by the Kalman filter (KF) through ...